On April 23, South-East European day-ahead power prices experienced a notable decline, with regional markets seeing reductions ranging from EUR 18/MWh to EUR 32/MWh compared to the previous day. This drop can be attributed to decreased import requirements and a more balanced regional electricity system, despite ongoing tightness in evening demand.
Specifically, Hungary’s HUPX market cleared at EUR 93.14/MWh, down by EUR 18.2/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM saw a decrease to EUR 88.31/MWh (down EUR 27.9/MWh), while Bulgaria’s IBEX fell to EUR 87.71/MWh (down EUR 24.6/MWh). Greece’s HENEX dropped to EUR 88.12/MWh, Slovenia’s BSP declined to EUR 74.61/MWh, and Croatia’s CROPEX settled at EUR 77.35/MWh. In the Western Balkans, Serbia’s SEEPEX reached EUR 65.99/MWh, Montenegro’s BELEN at EUR 73.75/MWh, North Macedonia’s MEMO at EUR 69.60/MWh, and Albania’s ALPEX at EUR 70.95/MWh.
This widespread price reduction indicates a significant easing in system tightness, with net imports into SEE decreasing to 1,662 MW, down by 869 MW from the previous day. Core imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia also fell to 2,760 MW, a reduction of 497 MW, reflecting a diminished reliance on external supplies.
The spread between Hungary and Germany for day-ahead pricing has narrowed to EUR 28.9/MWh, down approximately EUR 4/MWh. This suggests that while Hungary continues to maintain higher pricing compared to Western Europe, the premium is decreasing as regional market conditions improve.
Total regional consumption remained stable at around 30,640 MW, slightly lower than the previous day, with total generation reported at 28,265 MW. The generation mix has shown sufficient coverage, with hydro output contributing 7,067 MW, coal at 4,954 MW, gas at 3,579 MW, nuclear at 5,811 MW, solar at 3,715 MW, and wind at 1,883 MW.
Despite these lower average prices, intraday volatility has remained high across all markets. Hungary recorded a daily minimum of EUR -64.2/MWh and a maximum of EUR 277.0/MWh, highlighting the effects of robust midday solar generation followed by steep ramping requirements in the evening.
A similar trend was noted in neighboring markets; Slovenia’s prices fluctuated between EUR -44.3/MWh and EUR 152.0/MWh, while Romania traded between EUR -3.2/MWh and EUR 196.5/MWh. In contrast, Serbia and Montenegro avoided negative pricing altogether, maintaining minimum levels close to zero but still experiencing peak prices exceeding EUR 150/MWh.
<pMarket analysts attribute these developments to improving weather conditions and reduced system stress as temperatures across SEE and Hungary rise, alleviating some demand pressures while solar output continues to influence midday pricing.
The flow dynamics across the region indicate a more balanced system overall. Hungary and Greece remain the largest net importers, while Romania and Bulgaria continue their export activities into neighboring markets. Serbia and other Western Balkan systems are operating closer to balance, contributing further to the reduction in regional price pressure.
On the fuel side, forward indicators have shown stability; Austrian gas prices were assessed at EUR 44.89/MWh, while EU carbon allowances stood at EUR 74.41/t. This stability suggests that the recent drop in spot power prices is primarily driven by short-term market fundamentals rather than changes in fuel costs.
The outlook suggests continued pressure on daytime prices as solar generation is expected to increase alongside rising temperatures. However, persistent evening ramping needs coupled with limited flexibility within the system are likely to sustain strong price spikes during peak hours, keeping intraday volatility high across SEE markets.
