The South-East European power markets demonstrated resilience in March, marked by rising clearing prices across various exchanges. This upward trend was primarily influenced by a significant rebound in gas prices, which tightened the marginal cost base for electricity generation. However, trading volumes exhibited a more varied pattern, reflecting market-specific dynamics.
Average day-ahead prices across core SEE hubs surged to a range of €95–€120/MWh, following a relatively subdued February. Italy emerged as the region’s most expensive market with an average price of €143.36/MWh, solidifying its position as a price anchor. Hungary and Croatia followed closely with prices of €117.36/MWh and €110.12/MWh, respectively. Romania and Bulgaria recorded average prices of €105.15/MWh and €103.51/MWh. In contrast, Türkiye saw a sharp decline, with prices falling to €31.77/MWh, attributed to weaker demand and distinct market fundamentals.
The increase in clearing prices can be largely attributed to higher gas input costs, as TTF futures surpassed €50/MWh, directly impacting thermal generation bids. Additionally, lower hydroelectric output across the region, combined with inconsistent renewable energy generation, heightened supply constraints and reliance on gas-fired generation, leading to increased price sensitivity.
Intraday price formation indicated growing volatility, with midday prices often suppressed by solar energy output while evening peaks widened significantly. This was particularly evident in tighter systems like Serbia, where balancing requirements drove prices higher during peak hours.
Liquidity in the market remained concentrated, with Italy leading regional trading activity at approximately 24.2 TWh traded throughout March. Greece followed with around 4.37 TWh, while Bulgaria and Hungary each recorded close to 2.8 TWh. Romania traded about 1.35 TWh, Croatia 0.75 TWh, and Serbia remained structurally illiquid at just 0.46 TWh.
The monthly volume trends revealed divergence across the region. Greece experienced a month-on-month increase of +7.4%, while Italy saw a modest rise of +2.6%, indicating stable demand and ongoing cross-border trading activity. Bulgaria also reported increased liquidity with a volume rise of +5.6%.
Conversely, Hungary and Romania faced declines in traded volumes of -7.8% and -10.0%, respectively, signaling softer demand or fewer trading opportunities. Despite an increase of +12.3% month-on-month for Serbia, overall volumes remained low, underscoring the limited depth of the SEEPEX exchange. Croatia recorded a slight increase of +2.3%.
The daily trading patterns reinforced a hub-and-spoke structure within the region, with Italy consistently trading between 700–900 GWh/day. Greece averaged between 120–150 GWh/day, while Bulgaria and Hungary fluctuated between 80–120 GWh/day. Serbia’s daily volumes remained below 20 GWh, highlighting its vulnerability to significant price fluctuations due to limited liquidity.
The correlation between clearing prices and trading volumes revealed a non-linear relationship; high-liquidity markets like Italy maintained elevated price levels due to their reliance on gas-fired generation, whereas smaller markets such as Serbia displayed greater price volatility despite lower trading volumes. Markets with more diversified generation sources, including Bulgaria and Romania, experienced moderate price increases alongside relatively stable liquidity.
The developments in March reaffirmed that the SEE power markets are intricately linked to fluctuations in gas prices, with hydro variability and renewable energy output contributing to short-term divergences in pricing dynamics. Liquidity remains concentrated within a few exchanges, while smaller markets demonstrate heightened sensitivity to supply-demand imbalances, exacerbating regional volatility.
