Recent statistics from the Romanian National Institute for Statistics (INS) reveal a significant decline in both crude oil imports and domestic production during the early months of 2026. In January and February, Romania imported 1.256 million tons of oil equivalent, which represents a decrease of 271,700 tons (–17.8%) compared to the same timeframe in 2025.
Simultaneously, domestic crude oil output has also fallen, with production figures reaching 379,700 tons of oil equivalent. This marks a year-on-year decline of 35,700 tons (–8.6%), underscoring the ongoing structural challenges facing Romania’s oil sector.
The National Strategy and Forecast Commission (CNSP) has published its latest Energy Balance Forecast, projecting that the downward trend in crude oil production will persist through 2027. The forecast indicates an average annual decline rate of –2.5%.
For the year 2026, CNSP estimates total production to be around 2.68 million tons of oil equivalent, reflecting a decrease of 2.2% from 2025 levels. This trend is expected to continue into 2027, with output projected to drop further to 2.63 million tons of oil equivalent, equating to a –1.9% year-on-year reduction.
The anticipated decline in production is primarily attributed to the natural depletion of existing oil fields. Moreover, the reliance on aging production infrastructure without substantial new investments is expected to hinder any potential recovery in output levels.
