The Romanian government is actively formulating a contingency plan aimed at ensuring a smooth transition in the gas market as it prepares for the eventual lifting of regulated pricing. Energy Minister Bogdan Ivan has indicated that a phased approach will be adopted to gradually remove the gas price cap, rather than implementing an abrupt end. This strategy was discussed during a recent National Energy Command meeting, which evaluated preparations for the post-cap period set to begin after March 31, 2026. To mitigate potential market disruptions, consultations with gas suppliers and market operators commenced in September, focusing on developing multiple scenarios to avoid sharp price fluctuations similar to those experienced in the electricity sector.
Current evaluations suggest that gas prices are unlikely to experience significant increases once the cap is lifted. Minister Ivan highlighted Romania’s robust domestic gas production capabilities, which have enabled certain suppliers to offer prices below the regulated ceiling even within the existing framework. This strong production base is expected to play a crucial role in maintaining price stability in the future.
Looking ahead, the government is also factoring in long-term supply developments, notably the anticipated commencement of production at the Neptun Deep offshore project scheduled for 2027. This project is expected to enhance Romania’s energy security and contribute to sustained price stability. Should market conditions deteriorate unexpectedly, the alternative plan involves a gradual easing of the cap through monthly reductions of 8–10% until April 2027, with particular attention given to winter months when both household and industrial gas demand peaks.
Minister Ivan reiterated that the objective is not to prolong heavy state intervention but rather to steer the market towards a state of stability. The ultimate goal is to establish a competitive gas market that ensures predictable and fair pricing while safeguarding consumers and the broader economy from sudden shocks.
