Romania and Bulgaria exceed €400/MWh as SEE spreads widen

The gaps point to transmission availability and the location of generation shaping prices more than a uniform shortage across Southeast Europe. Romania recorded the region’s highest reported price, while Italian power was available at a lower benchmark price.

Combined Hungary and Southeast European consumption was about 36.34 GW, only modestly higher than the previous day. Regional generation rose to approximately 32.21 GW as net imports fell by about 647 MW to 4.13 GW.

Imports from the Austrian-Slovak core declined to around 3.26 GW. Prices strengthened even as the region’s dependence on external imports eased.

Serbia links western supply with Romania

Serbia remained a net importer, with domestic consumption around 4.38 GW and generation approximately 3.67 GW. The resulting average deficit was about 708 MW, down from about 789 MW the previous day.

Electricity entered Serbia from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, Bulgaria and North Macedonia, while commercial flows moved strongly toward Romania. The Serbia-Romania baseload flow reached about 473 MW toward Romania as the Romanian market traded nearly €50/MWh above SEEPEX.

SEEPEX increased by only €8.3/MWh to €360.85/MWh, a smaller rise than those in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. The increase widened Serbia’s discount to the main eastern markets and improved the economics of cross-border trading toward Romania.

Serbia’s combination of a domestic supply deficit and eastbound commercial flows made it a transit market between cheaper Western Balkan electricity and higher-priced Romania.

Montenegro channels Italian electricity

Montenegro’s domestic consumption was around 399 MW and generation approximately 386 MW, leaving the country almost balanced. Cross-border schedules were much larger than this domestic gap.

About 593 MW was scheduled from Italy into Montenegro. Montenegro sent approximately 214 MW toward Serbia, 192 MW toward Bosnia and Herzegovina and 168 MW toward Kosovo.

The Italy-Montenegro interconnector was therefore supplying the wider Balkan market rather than only meeting Montenegrin consumption. Italy’s day-ahead price of €293.86/MWh was nearly €60/MWh below BELEN’s €353.21/MWh, a gross spread before transmission capacity costs and losses.

That price difference increased the commercial value of Montenegro’s role as a gateway between Italy and the Western Balkans as Italian prices fell while Serbian, Bosnian and eastern Balkan markets remained stronger.

Romanian deficit contrasts with Greek exports

Romania’s consumption reached approximately 6.70 GW, while domestic generation was near 5.19 GW, leaving net imports of around 1.51 GW. The supply deficit coincided with the highest reported regional price on OPCOM, Romania’s market, and drew electricity from neighbouring systems including Serbia.

Bulgaria was closer to balance, with consumption of roughly 4.93 GW and generation around 4.80 GW, leaving net imports of only about 130 MW. Its IBEX day-ahead price nevertheless rose above €402/MWh, reflecting exposure to the tight Romanian market and strong peak-hour regional demand.

Greece generated around 7.10 GW against consumption of approximately 5.77 GW, leaving about 1.33 GW of net exports. Its HENEX price fell to €337.91/MWh, reinforcing Greece’s role as one of Southeast Europe’s lower-priced supply zones and exporters.

The day-ahead surge was not mirrored in forward power or fuel markets. Hungarian Week 47 power fell to around €247/MWh, Week 48 power to €251.50/MWh and December power to about €240/MWh.

Austrian gas weakened to approximately €86.08/MWh, while December coal declined to about €130/tonne. The contrast with spot electricity prices pointed to short-term physical conditions, congestion and cross-border market segmentation rather than a broad repricing of winter energy costs.

For Southeast European traders, widening spreads became a key signal, increasing the value of cross-border capacity, flexible generation, storage and accurate hourly scheduling.