Bulgaria and Romania could either steady Southeast Europe’s winter electricity balance with firm generation or deepen scarcity if domestic constraints cut exports. OPCOM reported that Romania’s weighted average day-ahead price rose to 1,265.96 lei/MWh in October 2026, from 917.36 lei/MWh in September 2026.
Romania’s market also entered an exceptionally high price range for delivery on 9 November. The daily baseload indicator was around EUR388/MWh, with several quarter-hour intervals substantially higher.
The price movement matters beyond Romania because both countries are positioned at key points in the region’s winter electricity balance. Romania’s generation mix includes nuclear, hydro, gas, coal, wind and solar power. Bulgaria combines nuclear generation with lignite, hydro and a growing renewable fleet.
When their generation assets are highly available, the two countries can supply neighbouring systems and reduce the number of hours in which expensive gas generation elsewhere sets the regional price. Their firm output can therefore help dampen price volatility in nearby markets.
Availability can fall quickly after a nuclear outage, weak hydro output, coal constraints or strong domestic demand. If export capacity declines amid high TTF prices and low renewable output elsewhere in Europe, Bulgaria and Romania could shift from supporting regional supply to transmitting scarcity.
The effect depends on cross-border capacity as well as domestic output. Romania is coupled to the Central European market through Hungary and other European Union borders, while Bulgaria links Southeast Europe toward Greece and the wider Balkan system. These routes put both markets at the centre of regional price formation rather than at the periphery of national markets.
Western Balkan buyers should monitor Romanian and Bulgarian generation availability alongside SEEPEX and local production. The cost of imports into Serbia, North Macedonia, Montenegro and other deficit markets can be influenced by whether the two countries have surplus power at the same time.
Winter risk across Southeast Europe partly depends on where dispatchable megawatts remain available. Romania and Bulgaria have some of the region’s largest sources of firm generation, giving them the potential to dampen volatility or export it when those assets are constrained.
