Power prices rose across Southeast Europe on 10 August as weekday demand returned, wind generation weakened and cross-border capacity constraints tightened regional electricity balances. The day-ahead market outcomes showed higher prices in Hungary and Romania, with several other markets settling close to that level.
Day-ahead baseload prices rise across the region
On HUPX, Hungary’s day-ahead baseload price increased by €59.2/MWh to €156.57/MWh, about 61% higher than Sunday. Romania’s day-ahead baseload price followed at €155.75/MWh, while Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia and Austria settled within a narrower €153–154/MWh range.
Serbia recorded the largest daily increase among the surveyed markets, with the SEEPEX day-ahead baseload price rising by €70.5/MWh to €153.32/MWh. The regional spread also showed clear differences between neighbouring systems.
The price structure indicated three regional zones. Hungary together with northern and central Southeast European markets traded around €153–157/MWh, while Albania, Bulgaria, Montenegro and North Macedonia were in a middle band of €131–141/MWh. Greece was the lowest at €103.99/MWh, and Italy recorded the highest price at €178.89/MWh.
Transmission constraints reflected in cross-border spreads
Neighbouring-market differentials pointed to transmission congestion and limited cross-border capacity. Hungary traded at a premium of €38.66/MWh over Germany and €52.57/MWh over Greece, indicating that lower-cost electricity elsewhere in the region did not fully reach central European markets.
Intraday spikes linked to evening delivery periods
In Hungary, the hourly profile on HUPX showed a solar-driven duck-curve pattern. Prices fell to a daily low of €82.9/MWh around noon before rising sharply to €269.1/MWh at 20:00, producing an intraday range exceeding €186/MWh.
Hungary’s peak-load average was €142.5/MWh, below the €170.6/MWh average during off-peak hours. Strong solar generation suppressed daytime prices, while the evening decline in photovoltaic output coincided with the most constrained period of the day.
Similar timing effects appeared in neighbouring markets: Romania reached €268.6/MWh at 20:00 and Serbia recorded a daily peak of €302/MWh at 21:00. Greece followed a different intraday pattern, with prices dropping to zero during late morning before increasing to €211.5/MWh at 23:00.
The hourly data indicated that evening delivery periods are becoming a key source of short-term price and imbalance risk compared with the daily baseload level alone.
Demand forecast up as solar rises and wind falls
Regional electricity demand was forecast to increase by 4,031 MW from Sunday to 33,432 MW, reflecting the return of commercial and industrial consumption after the weekend. Solar generation was forecast to rise by 3,743 MW, while forecast wind output declined by 830 MW.
After accounting for changes in solar and wind production, the residual electricity requirement increased by approximately 1,118 MW. Net imports rose by only 294 MW, leaving around 824 MW of additional demand to be met by thermal, hydro, nuclear and other dispatchable generation.
Hungary remained particularly dependent on imports from neighbouring systems, recording average net imports of 1,984 MW. Romania shifted from net exports of 698 MW on Sunday to net imports of 208 MW on Monday.
Bulgaria more than doubled its net exports to 1,348 MW, including deliveries towards Romania. Across the wider region, imports from Austria and Slovakia reached 2,219 MW, while another 1,056 MW continued flowing towards Italy where electricity prices remained highest among the surveyed markets.
Fuel and carbon markets show limited movement
Austrian CEGH gas was virtually unchanged at €56.60/MWh and EU carbon allowances were flat at €83.29/t, while coal prices recorded only modest gains. Hungarian forward power prices also weakened at the front of the curve.
Week 33 declined by €9/MWh to €165.50/MWh, while Week 34 and September contracts eased slightly to €161/MWh and €163/MWh respectively. Despite these declines, Hungary still traded at premiums versus Germany: spreads were €37/MWh for Week 33, €36/MWh for Week 34 and €32/MWh for September.
At the calendar horizon, the premium narrowed to €20.50/MWh. Market focus remained on evening demand levels, wind forecast revisions and cross-border flows between Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary . Low Danube water levels were also cited as an uncertainty affecting nuclear and hydropower availability . Any improvement in wind output or cross-border transmission availability could reduce the elevated Hungarian premium.
