The energy markets at the end of April exhibited significant volatility, primarily driven by geopolitical developments and supply dynamics. Brent crude oil futures on the ICE market demonstrated a fluctuating upward trajectory before experiencing a downturn in the final trading sessions. On April 29, prices peaked at $118.03/bbl, marking the highest level since early April. However, this was followed by a decline, with prices dropping to a weekly low of $108.17/bbl on May 1. Despite this correction, the weekly closing price was still 2.7% higher than the previous week, indicating underlying market strength.
Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, have significantly influenced market sentiment. In a related development, OPEC+ announced plans to increase production in June, even as the United Arab Emirates exited the organization on May 1. This decision underscores the complex interplay of supply risks in the Persian Gulf region, which remain heightened due to persistent geopolitical uncertainties.
Natural gas markets also reflected volatility during this period. TTF natural gas futures opened with a downward trend, reaching a weekly low of €43.59/MWh on April 28. The following day saw a sharp recovery of 7.5%, with prices climbing to a weekly high of €46.85/MWh. Ultimately, prices settled slightly lower but remained above €45/MWh, closing at €45.77/MWh, which represented a 2.0% increase from the prior week.
The support for gas markets is closely tied to geopolitical risks associated with the US-Iran conflict, compounded by European gas storage levels that continue to linger below 35%. This situation adds additional pressure on pricing as market participants navigate these uncertainties.
In the carbon market, CO₂ emission allowance futures (EEX, December 2026 contract) mostly traded below €75/t throughout the week. The peak for this period was noted on April 28 at €75.13/t, followed by a decline to €73.22/t on April 29, which marked the weekly low. A slight recovery was observed with prices reaching €73.80/t on April 30, although this still represented a decrease of 1.5% compared to the previous week’s closing figures, reflecting ongoing downward pressure within the carbon market.
