Electricity prices rose across Hungary, Serbia, Croatia, Romania and Italy in Week 25, while Greece and Bulgaria moved lower. Greece’s price fell by 6.6% to €85.50/MWh. Bulgaria’s power price declined by 6.4% to €87.58/MWh. The change coincided with stronger domestic supply conditions, improved renewable output and increased export support for regional balances.
Price moves across Southeast Europe in Week 25
Greece and Bulgaria stood out against the broader Southeast European market direction in Week 25. They emerged as two of the region’s most important price stabilisers after Türkiye. Their lower price levels reflected a supply situation that was more competitive than in several neighbouring markets.
In parallel, the wider regional picture showed upward pressure in multiple countries. Prices increased across Hungary, Serbia, Croatia, Romania and Italy during the same period. Against that backdrop, Greece and Bulgaria recorded declines.
Renewables drive supply strength in Greece and Bulgaria
Greece reported a strong renewable generation performance during the week, with total variable renewables up by 18.2%. Wind output increased by 37.5%, while solar generation rose by 11.4%. The additional low-marginal-cost production supported Greece’s supply position as regional demand grew.
Bulgaria’s renewable pattern differed, with stronger solar generation offsetting weaker wind production. Total variable renewables were supported by that shift in generation mix during Week 25. Despite a sharp fall in hydropower output of 39.4%, Bulgaria maintained an overall supply balance that remained competitive.
Exports and corridor effects shape regional balancing
Bulgaria expanded its role as a regional electricity supplier during the week, with net exports rising by 91.8%. This increase reinforced Bulgaria’s position as a key exporter within the SEE market. The export performance helped prevent prices from tracking the upward trajectory seen elsewhere in the region.
Greece and Bulgaria also functioned as balancing hubs within southern and eastern Southeast European electricity corridors. When their prices stayed below those of Hungary, Romania and Croatia, they supported cross-border trading through export flows and regional arbitrage opportunities . The scale of those opportunities depended on transmission capacity, congestion levels and hourly market conditions .
Renewable output does not produce uniform price outcomes
Week 25 also highlighted differences in how renewable expansion translated into market outcomes across countries. In systems where renewable output aligns with demand patterns and export opportunities, prices can soften and market stability can improve. In contrast, markets with strong midday solar generation but limited flexibility during evening hours may still see elevated prices.
During Week 25, Greece and Bulgaria were positioned closer to the scenario where renewable output better matched demand and export conditions . This positioning aligned with their lower price levels relative to several neighbouring markets.
Implications for procurement, trading and investment strategies
The developments pointed to procurement geography becoming increasingly relevant for electricity buyers . For traders, the relatively lower-priced Greece-Bulgaria corridor provided a counterbalance to tighter Central European-linked markets . For investors, both countries illustrated how combining renewable generation with storage, export capability and cross-border optimisation strategies can affect market positioning .
The Week 25 outcomes also showed that competitiveness was not determined solely by generation volumes. Market conditions were influenced by how effectively countries integrated renewable resources, managed flexibility and positioned themselves within the wider regional electricity network . Virtu.Energy data coverage for these dynamics was reflected through the period’s observed price changes.
