European wholesale electricity prices climbed above €300/MWh in several markets at the start of November as colder weather raised demand and weaker renewable generation tightened supplies, despite falling gas prices. Market data for the period showed the strongest price environment in several markets since the energy-crisis years.
Daily prices rise across major markets
On 9 November, Germany’s daily electricity price reached €345.64/MWh, its highest since December 2024. The Netherlands hit €342.43/MWh, also its highest since December 2024, while Belgium reached €335.27/MWh, France €334.12/MWh and Italy €313.51/MWh, levels not seen in those markets since December 2022. Britain’s daily price rose to €301.95/MWh.
Weekly prices also advanced in the first week of November, led by a 20% rise in the Nordic markets. Britain’s weekly price increased 19%, France’s 15% and Germany’s 11% compared with the previous week. Italy recorded the highest weekly average at €271.46/MWh, followed by Germany at €256.59/MWh and Spain at €218.07/MWh.
Demand increased across all the major markets analysed as temperatures fell. French electricity demand rose 14%, Britain’s increased 9.5% and Germany’s climbed 6.8%; demand also grew in Belgium, Italy, Portugal and Spain. France had the largest temperature decline, at 3.5°C from the previous week.
Renewable output and price outlook diverge
Weekly solar photovoltaic production fell 29% in Italy, 23% in France, 22% in Germany, 21% in Portugal and 18% in Spain. Wind generation declined for a second consecutive week in Italy, France and Germany, down 20%, 16% and 3.1%, respectively. Germany, France and Italy were particularly exposed because lower wind coincided with reduced solar output and higher consumption.
Portugal’s wind production rose 348% and Spain’s increased 25%, helping limit price rises despite higher demand and lower solar generation. Prices in both countries remained below the more extreme levels in central and western Europe. Even with lower weekly solar output, Spain, Portugal and Germany each set a record for photovoltaic generation on an individual November day: Spain produced 156 GWh on 2 November, Portugal 22 GWh on 4 November and Germany 190 GWh on 5 November.
Falling fuel costs did not offset the tighter electricity balances. Front-month TTF gas futures fell to €85.59/MWh on 6 November, down 18% from the previous Friday, while Brent ended the week at $98.32/bbl, a 16% decline over the same period. European carbon allowances also fell, to €86.55/t. Lower gas prices would normally ease marginal generation costs, but weather-driven demand and renewable availability dominated fuel-price signals.
Near-term conditions are expected to diverge further. Higher wind generation and softer demand are expected to reduce prices in Spain, Portugal, France, Britain and Belgium, while Germany, Italy and the Netherlands remain exposed to further upward pressure. Germany is particularly vulnerable to weaker wind generation as Europe enters winter, when short-term changes in renewable output and temperatures can quickly restore scarcity premiums and widen price differences between interconnected markets.
