In Southeast Europe (SEE), the dynamics of power pricing are increasingly shaped by EU carbon allowances, which have emerged as a critical factor influencing the competitiveness of various energy sources. As of 24 February 2026, the trading range for EUA December 2026 contracts was between 71–75 EUR/tCO₂. This pricing structure imposes significant costs on coal and gas-fired generation, particularly affecting nations with heavy reliance on coal.
For coal-dependent systems, the financial implications of carbon pricing are substantial. A typical coal plant emitting approximately 0.9 tons of CO₂ per MWh incurs carbon costs that surpass 60 EUR/MWh. This scenario is reshaping operational decisions, compelling coal units to either operate during peak hours or cede their place to gas or imported electricity, depending on relative costs.
In countries like Hungary and Romania, where gas-fired plants frequently establish marginal prices during peak demand periods, the interplay between carbon pricing and gas costs is crucial in determining the clean spark spread. On days such as 24 February, when day-ahead prices in Hungary exceeded 115 EUR/MWh, the clean spark margin remained positive yet highly sensitive to fluctuations in both gas and carbon prices.
The volatility introduced by carbon pricing is noteworthy. As demand surges or wind generation diminishes, markets face heightened pressure from rising fuel and carbon costs associated with thermal generation. In contrast, periods of high renewable output lead to a sharp decline in marginal costs, compressing profit margins for traditional energy sources.
As the SEE markets further integrate with EU energy frameworks, the influence of carbon pricing is expected to grow, even within systems that are only partially coupled. The ability to accurately model clean spark and clean dark spreads will become essential for stakeholders aiming to navigate the evolving landscape of regional power markets effectively.
