In early March, the energy markets witnessed significant price fluctuations, particularly in Brent oil, TTF gas, and CO₂ futures. The Front Month Brent oil futures on the ICE market opened the week with a minimum settlement price of $77.74 per barrel on March 2. By March 6, prices surged to a maximum of $92.69 per barrel, reflecting a substantial 28% increase from the previous Friday and marking the highest levels observed since late September 2023. This volatility was largely attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which raised concerns about potential supply disruptions, including attacks on oil facilities and the temporary closure of critical shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz.
Similarly, TTF gas futures experienced notable movements during the same period. The contracts recorded a weekly low of €44.51 per megawatt-hour on March 2, a figure that was already 39% higher than the previous week. Prices climbed further to reach a peak of €54.29 per megawatt-hour on March 3, the highest since February 2025. Although there was a minor decline on March 4, prices rebounded to close at €53.39 per megawatt-hour by March 6, representing a remarkable increase of 67% from the prior week. Contributing factors included disruptions at Qatari LNG facilities and threats from Russia regarding potential supply limitations to Europe, compounded by critically low European gas storage levels.
On the emissions trading front, CO₂ futures for December 2026 on the EEX market peaked at €73.33 per tonne on March 3 before experiencing slight declines throughout the week. The lowest settlement price was recorded at €70.36 per tonne on March 5, with a minor recovery to €70.59 per tonne by March 6. This trend indicated a modest increase of 0.4% compared to the previous Friday.
The interplay of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and ongoing supply concerns has been pivotal in shaping market dynamics for oil, gas, and carbon allowances during this period. As energy stakeholders navigate these developments, understanding their implications on pricing and supply chains will be crucial for strategic decision-making in an increasingly volatile landscape.
