The Southeast European day-ahead electricity market tightened on 8 July, with prices moving differently across markets. The HUPX day-ahead price increased to €128.17/MWh, up €21.3/MWh from the previous day. Romania, Croatia and Slovenia traded within a narrow band of €127–128/MWh, while Italy posted the region’s highest price at €146.43/MWh. Serbia recorded the lowest level at €104.08/MWh, leaving SEEPEX more than €24/MWh below HUPX.
Regional fundamentals supported the move in prices alongside weather and renewable output changes. The regional average temperature fell by 2.3°C to 20.7°C, while forecast electricity demand rose by 768 MW to 32,667 MW. Forecast solar generation declined by 807 MW to 5,752 MW, while wind generation increased by 336 MW to 1,517 MW. The lower solar output increased reliance on imports and dispatchable generation, particularly during morning and evening hours.
Duck-curve pricing and flexible generation value
Prices continued to follow a pronounced duck-curve profile during the session. On HUPX, baseload settled at €128.17/MWh, the peak block averaged €102.2/MWh, and the off-peak block reached €154.1/MWh. The structure reflected how solar availability suppresses daytime prices, while reduced renewable output outside solar hours increases the value of flexibility.
The session pricing also pointed to the role of flexible resources including battery storage, hydropower and gas-fired generation, alongside cross-border trading. Battery storage, hydropower and gas-fired generation were cited as key flexible resources in the market conditions described for the day-ahead curve. Cross-border electricity trading was also highlighted as part of how supply-demand balancing translated into hourly price differences.
Cross-border flows and interconnector-driven premiums
Southeast Europe recorded net imports of 2,352 MW, including 3,537 MW imported from the Austria-Slovakia corridor. At the same time, exports totaled 1,066 MW, directed to Italy. The Italian market maintained a premium of €18.26/MWh over Hungary, supporting continued flows despite import dependence from Central Europe.
The data also showed that transmission capacity and interconnector availability remained central to regional price formation. Electricity flows were linked to differences between markets, including Hungary’s influence on pricing and Italy’s higher day-ahead levels relative to Hungary.
Hungary as pricing hub; Serbia lowest-priced market
Bulgaria exporter position; Croatia, Slovenia and Montenegro follow closely
Bulgaria exported 1,303 MW, supported by generation of 5,129 MW against domestic demand of 3,826 MW. Nuclear output was described as the backbone of supply at approximately 1,886 MW, with solar also contributing significantly. IBEX closed at €117.80/MWh, below Hungarian and Romanian prices despite a daily increase of €14.8/MWh.
Romania traded almost identically to Hungary at €127.09/MWh, importing 589 MW, with nuclear, hydropower, gas and solar all contributing to supply. Croatia’s CROPEX settled at €127.08/MWh, with Croatia importing 1,064 MW, while BSP Slovenia closed at €128.40/MWh
