Serbia maintained one of Southeast Europe’s lower wholesale electricity positions during the second half of August, with stronger hydro, renewable and thermal output supporting exports. A rapid price rebound at the start of September showed that the discount could change quickly. Serbia’s day-ahead market averaged €133.02/MWh during Aug. 17-23.
In the same period, the Serbian average was about €22/MWh below Hungary’s €155.16/MWh and roughly €21/MWh below Croatia. In the regional comparison covering monitored markets, only Turkey was cheaper than Serbia. The discount coincided with a sharp increase in Serbian electricity consumption.
Demand rise and generation mix behind the August pricing gap
Compared with Week 30 in late July, Serbian demand rose by 13.54%. Over the wider group of monitored Southeast European markets, consumption fell by about 6.4%. Serbia offset the demand growth through higher domestic generation.
Variable renewable output increased by 48.9%, hydropower rose by 66.58%, and thermal generation climbed by 12.45%. This generation profile helped keep Serbia a net exporter despite stronger demand. It also supported a northbound price differential toward Hungary and Croatia.
September price rebound reduces Serbia’s discount
The start of September indicated that the spread was not assured. SEEPEX baseload for Sept. 1 delivery rose by €34.04/MWh to €166.25/MWh, reducing Serbia’s discount to HUPX to only €10.49/MWh. Hungary cleared at €176.74/MWh, Romania at €177.28/MWh, Bulgaria at €174.59/MWh, and Greece at €174.68/MWh.
Serbian prices then increased to €173.00/MWh for Sept. 2 delivery, according to SEEPEX . The change reflected how quickly a temporary market discount can contract even when production conditions previously supported lower prices.
Fleet composition, cross-border factors, and regional market tightness
Serbia’s electricity fleet includes lignite, large hydroelectric plants, wind and a growing solar sector . When hydro availability improves and thermal plants operate reliably, the mix can leave Serbia long electricity and support exports toward higher-priced Central European markets. Hydropower depends on hydrology, while coal generation remains exposed to outages and maintenance.
Wind output varies across the region, and rising solar production is increasingly concentrated in lower-priced daytime hours. Cross-border conditions also influence flows and pricing across interconnected markets . Romania entered September with nuclear output severely constrained after low Danube levels forced shutdown of its two Cernavodă reactors.
The resulting pressure pushed Romania toward imports as regional net imports increased when weekday demand returned . This tightened interconnected markets and drew Serbia closer to the Hungary-Romania-Bulgaria-Greece price cluster. As a result, Serbia’s trading advantage became more variable rather than permanent.
The €22/MWh Serbia-Hungary discount seen in Week 34 illustrated the potential size of that separation from neighbouring markets . Its rapid contraction at the start of September highlighted the risk of treating the discount as lasting without change.
