The Southeast European (SEE) power markets witnessed a notable decline in day-ahead prices on March 18, driven by a resurgence in renewable energy output and increased thermal generation, alongside heightened imports from Core Europe. This broad-based correction saw nearly all markets in the region adjusting sharply from the previous day’s elevated levels. Hungary’s HUPX market cleared at €103.13/MWh, down €34.1/MWh from the prior day, while Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, and Montenegro also recorded substantial drops. Albania emerged as an outlier with a price of €62.97/MWh, largely due to its reliance on hydroelectric power.
Despite the price drop, regional consumption remained stable at an average of 34,129 MW, only slightly above the previous day’s figures. The increase in total regional generation to 35,440 MW—up 2,656 MW day-on-day—was primarily attributed to wind energy production, which surged to 3,404 MW. Gas-fired output also saw an uptick to 6,366 MW and coal generation rose to 7,001 MW. Conversely, solar generation fell significantly to 3,456 MW, contributing to a firm evening price structure despite lower daily averages.
The interplay of supply dynamics has created a softer base price across the region without completely undermining peak-hour values. For instance, maximum hourly prices reached €230/MWh in Hungary and €153.6/MWh in both Romania and Bulgaria. This pattern is characteristic of March in Central and Southeast Europe, where increased midday renewable output tends to compress base prices while maintaining higher evening prices that benefit flexible hydro and gas generation strategies.
Cross-border trading patterns have also shifted in response to these developments. The region’s total net import capacity was recorded at -1,075 MW—a slight improvement from the previous day—while imports from Core Europe rose sharply to 1,409 MW. The widening of the HU-DE spot spread to €14.22/MWh indicates that Hungary and neighboring SEE markets remain competitively priced compared to Germany, attracting western inflows even after recent price corrections.
Analyzing the differential pricing across neighboring hubs reveals an uneven correction. Hungary continues to command a premium over most SEE markets with significant differentials against HUPX: Romania at -€8.78/MWh, Bulgaria at -€10.58/MWh, Greece at -€12.27/MWh, Serbia at -€13.89/MWh, Montenegro at -€12.78/MWh, and Albania at -€40.16/MWh. Austria’s EPEX-AT market remained closely aligned with Hungary at €100.92/MWh.
In Serbia specifically, SEEPEX reported a price of €89.24/MWh—down €20.3/MWh from the previous day—indicating a significant discount compared to HUPX by nearly €14/MWh. This positioning is strategically important as Serbia serves as both a transit and balancing zone within the regional market framework.
Montenegro’s market dynamics are becoming increasingly relevant due to ongoing infrastructure upgrades aimed at enhancing cross-border transmission capabilities with Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The planned upgrades on the 220 kV corridor are expected to increase line capacity towards 600 MW over time.
Romania’s market position is particularly noteworthy; its daily price of €94.35/MWh sits below Hungary but above Serbia and Greece. Recent reports indicate a year-on-year increase in electricity production by 10.9% alongside significant growth in hydropower and wind generation while imports have decreased by 14.7%. These trends suggest that Romania is gaining internal flexibility within its energy system.
From a forward-looking perspective on commodity pricing, CEGH gas was quoted at €52.85/MWh—up slightly from the previous day—while EUA Dec-26 carbon allowances dropped to €66.65/t. Hungarian power forwards showed mixed results but remained robust overall: Week 13 at €113/MWh and Cal-26 at €110/MWh indicate a resilient forward market despite recent spot price declines.
Weather forecasts for the coming days predict mild temperatures across SEE countries, which should alleviate concerns about late-winter load shocks and keep market attention focused on renewable energy availability and cross-border import capabilities.
In summary, while the recent price adjustments reflect a rebalancing of supply dynamics following increased renewable output and imports from Core Europe, the underlying market conditions remain complex with significant volatility potential driven by evening demand peaks and regional pricing disparities.
