During Week 25, the Southeast Europe electricity market showed a wider divergence between countries rather than trading as a single block. Markets with export flexibility continued to price differently from those facing higher demand, import dependence, and evening-hour scarcity. Italy and Hungary were positioned at the upper end of the regional price curve, while Greece, Bulgaria, and Serbia stayed in a lower pricing cluster. Some of those lower-priced markets also saw upward price pressure during the week.
Italy remains the regional premium market
Italy continued to set the clearest signal for regional pricing. Weekly day-ahead prices averaged approximately €127.69/MWh, higher than levels recorded across most Balkan and Central European-connected SEE markets. The premium reflected factors beyond fuel costs, including higher electricity demand, reduced hydro generation, and weaker wind output. The Italian system relied more on gas-fired generation and imports, with cross-border trading flows extending the impact to neighboring markets.
Hungary moves higher amid coupling and scarcity
Hungary also shifted into a higher pricing range, with HUPX averaging around €109.16/MWh. The market’s role as a link between SEE and Central Europe shapes outcomes through domestic consumption and import requirements as well as regional market coupling. Scarcity periods and cross-border electricity flows also influence pricing. Even with lower net import exposure, prices could remain elevated if surrounding Central European systems faced tighter supply conditions and stronger evening demand.
Gas prices soften while power prices rise in multiple markets
The week showed that lower gas prices did not translate into lower electricity prices across the region. Although TTF gas prices softened during the week, power prices increased in Croatia, Hungary, Serbia, Romania, and Italy. The pattern pointed to physical supply constraints, hydro availability, renewable generation levels, and peak-hour balancing needs as key drivers. This shift affected wholesale outcomes even when demand conditions varied by country.
CROPEX above €100/MWh as wind weakens
Croatia illustrated the same direction of price pressure tied to system conditions. Rising electricity demand, weaker wind generation, and greater reliance on imports pushed CROPEX prices above €100/MWh. Romania recorded higher prices despite lower demand during the same period. Reduced hydro availability alongside regional market convergence contributed to wholesale pricing outcomes.
Greece exports more; Bulgaria increases solar-backed exports
Greece and Bulgaria showed how stronger renewable output could ease pressure temporarily. Greece expanded its export position during Week 25. Bulgaria significantly increased exports supported by improved solar generation. Despite ongoing volatility risk, both markets demonstrated that renewable availability could still provide short-term price relief during warmer weather and higher seasonal demand.
Widening inter-market spreads shape trading focus
The divergence translated into a more spread-driven trading environment across SEE. Opportunities were increasingly defined by widening gaps between individual markets rather than a single regional price direction. Key spreads were emerging between Italy and the Balkans, Hungary and Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, as well as between Türkiye and the broader EU-linked SEE region. For buyers, this highlighted hedging needs focused on peak-hour exposure.
For generators, the same spread structure pointed to revenue dependence on production timing rather than total output volume alone.
