Hydro remains the most underpriced risk variable in Southeast Europe power analysis, with Week 25 highlighting its market impact. Regional hydropower generation fell 4.7% to 3.57 TWh, and the decline supported higher thermal dispatch and electricity prices across much of the region. Solar generation increased during the same period, but hydro weakness continued to matter because hydro provides controllable flexibility that solar cannot.
Hydro sensitivity tracker scope for SEE markets
The hydro sensitivity tracker focuses on Serbia, Romania, Croatia and Greece, with Italy added as a regional premium reference. These systems depend on hydro not only for energy supply, but also for ramping, balancing and evening supply. When hydro availability falls, market reliance increases for gas, coal, imports and higher-priced balancing power.
Serbia’s Week 25 recovery and price pressure
Serbia represents the positive case in the tracker. Its hydro output recovered 42.9% in Week 25, helping the country move from net imports to modest net exports. Even with that recovery, SEEPEX rose by 9.6%, indicating that stronger domestic hydro did not fully insulate Serbia from regional price signals.
Romania’s weaker hydro and forward price levels
Romania is presented as the opposite case. Hydro generation fell by 9.8%, reducing one of the country’s key flexibility buffers. Romania averaged €104.84/MWh, then appeared as the highest-priced SEE market in the forward day-ahead map for 24 June, at €202.95/MWh. This level is cited as making Romanian hydro sensitivity one of the most important summer indicators.
Differentiated roles for Greece and Croatia
Greece and Croatia require separate treatment within the tracker framework. Greece can offset some hydro weakness through solar, wind and gas-fired flexibility. Croatia is described as more exposed due to imports and Adriatic corridor pricing.
The tracker also notes that hydro impacts are not uniform across systems. It points to reservoir levels, inflows, pumping capability, import exposure and demand seasonality as factors that change how hydro availability affects prices.
Virtu.EnergyHydro is characterized as a market-shaping flexibility asset in Southeast Europe rather than a background generation category.
