Hydropower generation in Serbia has fallen to historically low levels amid prolonged drought and extreme temperatures that have reduced river inflows. The impact is linked to lower performance from the country’s Danube-based assets.
Đerdap inflows and operating levels
Inflows into the Đerdap hydropower complex have declined to approximately 1,500 cubic metres per second. Đerdap 1 is producing at around 20% of installed capacity, while Đerdap 2 operates at roughly 30%. Comparable hydrological conditions were previously recorded in 2003 and 1985, indicating the severity of the current drought.
Conditions on the Drina are somewhat better, but inflows remain below normal. The reduced river flows affect both reservoir and run-of-river generation across the system.
System balancing role of hydro and pumped storage
The loss of hydroelectric output has a disproportionate effect on system operations because reservoir and run-of-river plants provide more than energy. They supply rapid-response capacity during morning and evening peaks. They also help balance solar production and reduce the need for high-priced imports.
The rehabilitation of the Bajina Bašta pumped-storage plant has improved operational flexibility. Reservoirs are around 75% full, enabling pumping during lower-priced solar hours and generation during peak demand. Preserving stored energy is expected to become increasingly important if the drought continues into autumn.
Thermal generation constraints and coal stocks
Thermal generation is also affected by low Danube levels that constrain cooling at Kostolac. Some units there have reduced output by approximately one-third. The TENT complex continues operating using cooling water from the Sava, although low calorific value domestic lignite remains a challenge.
Serbia has increased imports of higher-quality coal, with stockpiles at approximately 1.82 million tonnes. The government aims to raise reserves above 2 million tonnes before winter.
Demand rise and import exposure
Electricity consumption has climbed to 100–105 GWh per day, approaching the 110–115 GWh recorded during winter peaks. With weak hydro production and constrained thermal flexibility, Serbia’s dependence on imports increases. This also exposes the system to expensive evening-market prices.
