In April 2026, the Southeast European (SEE) electricity markets experienced notable price softening, reflecting a transition from winter scarcity to spring surplus. The average day-ahead electricity prices decreased across nearly all markets due to a combination of milder weather, reduced demand, and increased output from solar and other renewable sources. Italy maintained its position as the highest-priced market at €119.47/MWh, while Türkiye saw a significant drop to €18.45/MWh. Serbia’s average price was recorded at €91.51/MWh, marking a month-on-month decline of 3.29%, yet still representing a year-on-year increase of 5.67%.
The demand landscape shifted dramatically following the winter months, with Serbia experiencing the most significant reduction in demand at 31.78%. Other countries followed suit: Romania’s demand fell by 16.94%, Bulgaria by 14.09%, Italy by 13.33%, Greece by 10.93%, Türkiye by 7.01%, and Hungary by 6.64%. This overall decline in demand contributed to decreased reliance on marginal gas and coal generation, allowing renewables to exert more influence on daytime pricing.
Price convergence among several regional markets became increasingly evident, with Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Croatia clustering around €88–91/MWh. Romania and Hungary remained slightly elevated at €95–97/MWh. Italy’s premium price reflects its ongoing dependence on gas imports and structural import requirements, which amounted to net imports of 4,433.73 GWh in April.
From a trading perspective, Serbia’s market dynamics showed improvement despite coal and lignite still accounting for a dominant share of 52.49% in the energy mix. Hydro generation contributed significantly with a 39.52% share, enabling Serbia to achieve net exports of 155.16 GWh during the month. The SEEPEX exchange reported an increase in traded volume to 484.04 GWh, up by 5.87% month-on-month, indicating enhanced liquidity even amid declining prices.
Hydro generation remained a crucial balancing factor across the region, although there were stark variations in performance. Greece experienced a dramatic hydro output drop of 57.38%, while Croatia saw a decrease of 21.82%. Conversely, Italy’s hydro output increased by 21.75%, followed by Türkiye at 9.96%, Serbia at 7.22%, and Romania at 7.14%. These discrepancies in hydro production contributed to uneven price movements despite the overarching trend of reduced demand.
The gas market also exhibited bearish trends but remained sensitive to geopolitical factors. The Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices fluctuated from above €48/MWh early in April to a low of €38.78/MWh on April 17 before stabilizing in the mid-€40/MWh range. Factors such as lower gas demand, improved LNG availability, and high solar generation were instrumental in driving prices down; however, risks associated with the Middle East and uncertainties surrounding LNG flows prevented more substantial corrections.
The overarching trend for April indicates that SEE markets are adapting to seasonal changes with an increased focus on daytime solar generation and its impacts on pricing structures. Producers are likely facing heightened exposure to solar cannibalization effects during peak hours, necessitating strategies for hedging and optimizing storage capacities alongside flexible hydro resources and cross-border trading opportunities.
