June 21, 2024
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Region: December futures in Hungary and Romania increased to 322 euros per MWh and 298 euros per MWh

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Hydropower production in the Balkans continued to fall in the 43rd and 44th weeks. This trend is led by lower flows of rivers and reservoirs in Romania, ENTSO-E hydrological reports and data from November 8 showed.

Hydro production in Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia and BiH fell to 550 GWh in the 44th week, which is 14% less compared to the period two weeks ago and 27% less than the peak recorded at the beginning of October.

Production in Romania fell by 26% during this period, with reduced flow and reservoir levels. A somewhat milder decline in hydropower production was recorded in Serbia, Bulgaria and Bosnia and Herzegovina, while in Croatia and Slovenia the contribution of hydropower plants is slightly increasing.

Hydropower reserves across the region continued to decline, by nearly 5% over the past two weeks, to a seven-month low of 4.1 TWh at the end of the 44th week.

Spot electricity prices across the region continued to fall unevenly in late October and early November, following gas prices and relatively modest demand. From around €190/MWh in mid-October, the day-ahead baseload price briefly fell below €140/MWh, before rising to €182/MWh by the end of week 44 in both Hungary and Romania.

The month-ahead price for base load has increased by around 10 euros per MWh in Hungary and Romania, to 322 euros per MWh and 298 euros per MWh for December contracts.

On the other hand, prices for the next quarter fell by over 30 euros per MWh in both countries, to 421 euros per MWh and 385 euros per MWh.

A further slight decline in hydro production is expected in week 45, as river levels are forecast to fall in Slovakia and Serbia, while Romania and Bulgaria are expected to remain largely unchanged.

River levels across the region remain well below multi-year averages for this time of year.

Hydro production on river courses could also fall in week 46, given that precipitation in the Danube basin is forecast to be relatively modest in week 45.


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