During Week 51 of 2025, Dutch gas prices posted modest gains, but the market is largely expected to trade sideways, as rising demand from colder weather can be easily met by both pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries.
TTF gas futures on the ICE market for January 2026 delivery traded higher compared to Week 50, staying close to €27.5/MWh throughout the week. On Tuesday, December 16, prices fell by -2.4% from the previous day, hitting the week’s lowest settlement at €26.764/MWh, which was -2.6% below the level on Tuesday, December 9. Prices then trended upwards for the rest of the week, reaching a weekly high of €28.161/MWh on Friday, December 19, up 1.8% from Thursday and 1.7% higher than the previous Friday. The weekly average settlement stood at €27.472/MWh, 1.4% above the average for Week 50.
Dutch wholesale gas prices edged higher on Friday morning as forecasts for lower wind power output increased gas demand from power plants. Non-local distribution zone demand in Northwest Europe, which includes power plant consumption, was expected to rise by 133 GWh/day, according to LSEG data, due to the dip in wind generation.
Key US LNG export plant Freeport LNG was set to take in more gas on Wednesday, December 17, indicating that one of its three liquefaction trains had returned to service after shutting down on Tuesday. At the same time, Norwegian pipeline gas nominations to Europe reached 348.8 million cubic metres (mcm) per day on Wednesday, the highest level since August 2024, and 347.6 mcm/day on Thursday, according to infrastructure operator Gassco.
Weather forecasts point to colder temperatures and less wind in Europe heading into January, expected to lift heating demand. Meanwhile, EU gas storage was at 69.92% full, compared with 77.91% at the same time last year. As of December 21, storage levels were 66.89% full, versus 75.88% last year, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory (AGSI). The EU entered the 2025/26 heating season having failed to meet the Commission’s storage target of 90% by November 1, following a relaxation of storage requirements earlier in the year that allowed the target to be met anytime between October 1 and December 1.
The relaxation of EU gas storage targets has reduced upward pressure on gas prices by easing the urgency for buyers to secure volumes at any cost. Under the previous stricter regime, compulsory filling requirements distorted market behavior, pushing aggressive procurement and inflating forward prices regardless of supply-demand fundamentals. This policy shift has allowed the TTF forward curve to normalize, reverting toward a more typical seasonal structure that better reflects weather risk, LNG availability, and pipeline flows, rather than regulatory constraints.
As a result, EU storage peaked at around 83% in mid-October, lower than the exceptional highs of recent years. By early December, inventories had declined to approximately 75% full, below both the five-year average and last year’s level of around 85% at the same point in the season.
While easing storage targets has improved price efficiency and reduced volatility in forward markets, it also leaves Europe more exposed heading into the 2025/26 winter. The region remains sensitive to colder-than-normal weather, LNG supply disruptions, or geopolitical shocks, signaling a shift from policy-driven price support toward market fundamentals, which improves efficiency but increases potential risks later in the winter.
