June 21, 2024
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Europe: European electricity prices fell below 55 euros/MWh in week 51

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In the week of December 25, prices in some of the main European electricity markets fell, while in other markets prices increased compared to the previous week. In the EPEX SPOT market of the Netherlands, Belgium, France and Germany, prices fell by 32%, 44%, 47% and 50%, respectively. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 6.9% in the IPEX market of Italy and 16% in the MIBEL market of Portugal.

In the fourth week of December, weekly averages were below €55/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Spanish, Portuguese and Italian markets, with averages of €76.61/MWh, €76.86/MWh and €116.17/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €20.69/MWh in the German market to €54.98/MWh in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom.

On the other hand, the German, Belgian, French and Dutch markets registered negative hourly prices on most days of the last week of December, as well as on January 1. In the early morning hours of December 25, the German, Belgian and Dutch markets reached their lowest prices since August 8, while the French market reached its lowest price since July 16. The lowest hourly price, ‑€13.37/MWh, was in the German market. The British market also registered negative prices on December 25, 28 and 29 and January 1. In the case of the Spanish and Portuguese markets, there was a price of €0/MWh on Sunday, December 31, from 4:00 to 6:00.

During the week of December 25, the drop in electricity demand and the increase in solar energy production in countries such as Germany and France contributed to the price decreases registered in the EPEX SPOT market. However, wind and solar energy production fell in Italy and the Iberian Peninsula. This led to higher prices in these markets.

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that in the first week of January, prices might increase in most European electricity markets. The recovery in demand and the decrease in wind energy production in some markets might contribute to this behaviour. However, the IPEX and MIBEL markets might register price decreases. A significant rise in wind energy production in these markets would lead to these price decreases.

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