According to AleaSoft Forecasting, during the week of March 4, average prices of the main European electricity markets continued to increase. The exception was the EPEX SPOT market of Germany and the Netherlands, with falls of 4.1% and 7.0%, respectively. In contrast, the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal, which had registered declines the previous week, reached the largest percentage price rises, due to the low prices registered in this market, especially in the last week of February.
The average of the Portuguese market increased by 183% and that of the Spanish market by 211%, although the weekly averages were €12.81/MWh and €14.10/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices increased between 1.1% in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and 31% in the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries.
Despite these increases, in the first week of March, weekly averages remained below €70/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Belgian market, the British market and the IPEX market of Italy, with averages of €70.44/MWh, €73.03/MWh and €90.51/MWh, respectively. In contrast, the Portuguese and Spanish markets registered the lowest weekly prices again, €12.81/MWh and €14.10/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €62.63/MWh in the Dutch market to €67.79/MWh in the French market.
Regarding hourly prices, on March 9 and 10, the German market registered 7 hours with negative prices. The Dutch market also registered 11 hours with negative prices from March 8 to 10. The lowest hourly price, €39.79/MWh, was reached in the Dutch market on March 9, from 13:00 to 14:00. This price was the lowest in this market since the first half of August 2023. On the other hand, despite the increase in the weekly average, the combination of high renewable energy production and low demand also led to low prices in the MIBEL market. In this case, from March 8 to 10, there were 38 hours with a price of €0/MWh. In the case of daily prices, on Sunday, March 10, the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal averaged €0.54/MWh. This price was the lowest since February 2014 in the Iberian market.
During the week of March 4, the increase in the average price of gas and CO2 emission rights led to higher prices in European electricity markets. The decline in wind energy production in most analyzed markets also contributed to this behaviour. In the case of the MIBEL market, moreover, solar energy production fell and electricity demand increased. On the other hand, the increase in wind and solar energy production in Germany contributed to lower prices in that market.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that in the second week of March price increases might continue in European electricity markets. The fall in wind energy production in most markets and the increase in demand in some of them will lead to this behaviour, AleaSoft Forecasting reports.
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