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Brent oil, TTF gas and EU carbon prices show mixed movements in early July amid market pressures

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In the first week of July, Brent oil futures for the Front Month on the ICE market started with price declines. On Tuesday, July 1, the futures hit their weekly low settlement price of $67.11 per barrel. Following a 3.0% increase the next day, prices peaked at $69.11 per barrel on July 2. However, prices fell again, with the settlement price on Friday, July 4, at $68.30 per barrel—still 0.8% higher than the previous Friday.

Expectations of increased production from OPEC+ exerted downward pressure on Brent futures during the week. On July 2, prices rose due to Iran’s suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Meanwhile, rising US oil inventories contributed to renewed price declines. Ultimately, on Saturday, July 5, OPEC+ announced a production increase of 548,000 barrels per day starting in August.

Regarding TTF gas futures on the ICE market for the Front Month, prices reached their weekly low settlement price of €33.18 per MWh on Monday, June 30. After a 2.3% increase the following day, the weekly high settlement price was €33.95 per MWh on Tuesday, July 1. Prices remained slightly lower but above €33 per MWh for the rest of the week, closing at €33.47 per MWh on July 4, which was 1.2% higher than the previous Friday. Ample supply and expectations of reduced electricity generation demand in the second week of July, due to cooler temperatures and increased wind energy production, helped keep TTF gas futures below €34 per MWh.

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For CO2 emission allowance futures on the EEX market with the December 2025 contract, the lowest weekly settlement price was €68.97 per ton on Monday, June 30—the lowest since May 6. Prices then rose and stayed above €70 per ton for the remainder of the week. On Thursday, July 3, the contract reached its weekly peak at €72.08 per ton, followed by a slight decline to €71.67 per ton on July 4, still 1.0% higher than the previous Friday, AleaSoft reports.

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