European gas prices increased by 11.4% during the week of June 16–22, 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, increased cooling demand amid hotter-than-usual weather, and reduced wind power generation across the continent. On June 19, the TTF futures for the month ahead, traded on the ICE exchange, reached €41.6/MWh, marking the highest settlement price since April 2. The price surge was primarily attributed to fears of potential supply disruptions, particularly as tensions between Israel and Iran escalated, raising concerns over the involvement of the United States and the safety of LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Throughout the third week of June, TTF gas futures for July delivery traded around €40/MWh. On Monday, June 16, prices reached their weekly low of €37.906/MWh, just 0.03% above the last session of the previous week and 6.5% higher than Monday, June 9. Prices trended upwards over the course of the week, peaking on Thursday, June 19, at €41.625/MWh. This represented a 7.6% daily increase and a 15.1% rise compared to Thursday, June 12. The weekly average stood at €40.139/MWh, marking an 11.4% increase over the previous week’s average.
Wholesale gas prices rose significantly on Wednesday as the market reacted to reports of Qatar instructing LNG tankers to wait outside the Strait of Hormuz until they were ready to load. This move, seen as a precaution amid heightened regional tensions, added to fears of restricted supply routes. Although supply from the region remained stable, the potential disruption of key maritime passages elevated market uncertainty.
On Thursday, gas prices reached their highest point since early April, fueled by concerns over the stability of the Middle East and the strategic Strait of Hormuz. While the upward momentum eased slightly on Friday, June 20, prices remained volatile as traders continued to monitor the geopolitical situation.
Meanwhile, Israel resumed limited gas exports from its reserves on June 19, nearly a week after shutting down its key offshore fields, Leviathan and Karish, due to military escalation. These fields, operated by Chevron and Energean, were closed on June 13 for security reasons. The resumed exports were mostly directed toward Jordan, with only minimal volumes reaching Egypt. Israeli gas plays a vital role in Egypt’s energy mix, supplying up to 60% of its gas imports and about 20% of its total consumption. In response to the supply shortfall, Egypt has turned to alternative sources, increasing fuel oil usage in power plants and securing over $8 billion in LNG import agreements. The country is also preparing additional floating regasification units to bolster its energy resilience.
In Qatar, gas production at the South Pars field—also known as the North Field—remained steady despite an Israeli airstrike on June 14. According to sources, QatarEnergy ordered LNG tankers to delay entry into the Gulf until the day before scheduled loading, as a security measure. The South Pars/North Field complex is the world’s largest gas field, jointly shared by Iran and Qatar, with an annual production exceeding 350 billion cubic meters—more than the European Union’s total yearly consumption. The field supplies roughly 70% of Iran’s gas and underpins Qatar’s massive LNG industry.
On the policy front, the European Union made a significant move toward energy independence. On June 17, the European Commission introduced a legislative proposal to gradually eliminate imports of Russian gas and oil by the end of 2027. The proposal includes a phased ban on pipeline gas and LNG originating from or exported by Russia, directly or indirectly. It also outlines the complete phase-out of Russian oil imports within the same timeline. Member States will be required to submit diversification strategies with clear targets and measures to reduce and ultimately end reliance on Russian fossil fuels. This initiative is part of the EU’s broader effort to reduce exposure to market and security risks and to strengthen its energy sovereignty and competitiveness.
