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Electricity market trends in Europe: Price fluctuations, demand decline and renewable energy shortfalls in late March 2025

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In the last week of March 2025, electricity prices in Europe showed mixed trends. A decline in wind energy production led to price increases in some markets, despite falling demand and lower gas and CO₂ prices. Croatia and Greece saw the highest percentage increases in electricity prices, rising by 20.41% and 14.18%, respectively, while Serbia and Bulgaria followed with increases of 11.62% and 9.39%. In contrast, electricity prices declined in Italy (-3.08%) and Türkiye (-5.70%).

In Central Europe, weekly average spot electricity prices mostly increased, hovering around €100/MWh, except in Switzerland. Higher temperatures and increased wind and photovoltaic energy production contributed to this trend. Prices in the region ranged between €72-115/MWh, with Switzerland being the most expensive market at €114.83/MWh, followed by Austria at €101.99/MWh. France recorded the lowest price in Central Europe at €71.50/MWh, marking a 25.66% increase from the previous week.

In Week 13, the European weekly average electricity price was around €93/MWh, with prices ranging from €30.26/MWh in Spain to €119.45/MWh in Italy. In the MIBEL market, electricity prices fell significantly, with Spain and Portugal recording decreases of -15.02% and -10.16%, respectively. In Southeastern Europe (SEE), all countries had electricity prices above €100/MWh, except Türkiye, where prices averaged €54.47/MWh. Serbia was the second cheapest market in the SEE region at €100.58/MWh, while Italy recorded the highest price at €119.45/MWh, an increase of 11.62% from the previous week.

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Electricity demand in SEE markets declined across all countries due to warmer weather, which reduced heating needs. Overall demand in the region fell by -9.67% compared to the previous week, reaching 14,906.18 GWh. Bulgaria saw the largest drop in electricity demand (-15.24%), followed by Hungary (-17.03%) and Serbia (-14.68%). Romania, Türkiye, and Greece also recorded declines of -13.23%, -10.84%, and -7.34%, respectively. The decrease in Greece was partially attributed to the national holiday on March 25. Italy also experienced a demand drop of -4.20%.

Renewable energy output in SEE markets decreased during Week 13, falling by -23.1% to 1,975.30 GWh. Wind generation dropped -21.8% to 1,299.53 GWh, with Hungary (-38.9%) and Türkiye (-26.5%) registering the highest declines. Solar output also declined by -25.4%, reaching 675.78 GWh, with Romania (-48.1%), Hungary (-46.9%), and Croatia (-41.0%) experiencing the sharpest reductions. Hydropower generation in the SEE region also fell by -4.65% to 2,014.45 GWh. Bulgaria (-34.29%) and Croatia (-23.90%) recorded the largest decreases, while Hungary (+37.20%) and Romania (+2.94%) increased their hydropower output.

Thermal power generation in the SEE region dropped by -6.55% to 6,777.61 GWh. Coal-fired generation saw an -11.27% decline to 2,523.96 GWh, with Türkiye (-12.38%) and Greece (-3.19%) experiencing the biggest reductions. Gas-fired generation also decreased by -3.51%, reaching 4,253.64 GWh. Bulgaria saw a -12.62% drop in gas-fired generation, while Italy recorded a -4.40% decline.

Cross-border electricity trade in SEE markets increased, with net imports rising by 15.17% in Week 13 compared to the previous week, reaching 1,244.46 GWh. Electricity exports from the region rose by 24.8% to 117.72 GWh, while imports surged by 11.8% to 1,362.19 GWh. Hungary (+50.57%), Greece (+13.40%), and Italy (+4.79%) recorded higher net imports, while Croatia’s net electricity imports dropped by -57.80%. Bulgaria and Türkiye continued exporting but at lower levels, with net exports decreasing by -28.62% and -15.49%, respectively. Romania shifted from a net exporter to a net importer, with 60.30 GWh in imports, while Serbia moved from a net importer to a net exporter, recording net exports of 29.26 GWh.

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